Not much time left — ISW explained why the occupiers will suspend the offensive

Russian military commanders have given their troops a timeframe for conducting mechanized assaults in Ukraine. The occupiers want to gain a tactical advantage as soon as possible before the weather conditions worsen.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). 

When Russian troops will weaken their offensive operations

The researchers noted that mud in the fall could limit mechanized maneuvers. In particular, in the fall, most windbreaks will no longer be able to hide Russian infantry groups due to falling leaves from the trees. This will leave the Russian military vulnerable. 

"Poor weather conditions in the fall of 2024 and early winter of 2024-2025 are likely to complicate and limit the maneuverability of both mechanized and infantry forces, but Russian troops may try to maintain their consistent offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine despite these difficulties," the analysts said.

Recently, Ruslan Muzychuk, the spokesman of the National Guard of Ukraine, said that Russian troops are using armored vehicles more often in the direction of Kharkiv and Pokrovsk, when the weather and roads are dry. 

It is known that since the end of July 2024, Russian troops have been conducting active mechanized attacks in the western part of the Donetsk region, and since July 25, at least four attempts of enemy mechanized attacks of the size of a battalion have been recorded in eastern Ukraine.

In addition, also since late September 2024, the Russian military has resumed relatively large-scale mechanized attacks along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. 

Kurakhove or Pokrovsk may be a priority

"The Russian military command probably aims to strengthen mechanized offensive activities to allow Russian troops to advance through open fields and consolidate in front-line settlements near where Russian forces can then be used as a springboard for staging and launching offensive operations aimed at achieving operational goals such as the capture of Pokrovsk or Kurakhovo in the west of the Donetsk region," analysts explain.

Could Russian offensive operations come to a complete halt in the fall or winter?

Nevertheless, researchers believe that the Russian infantry will continue to carry out offensive operations, despite the fact that it will be more difficult for them to maneuver in the fall. The military command and Vladimir Putin are sticking to the strategy of not allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to accumulate manpower and equipment, so the pressure on the front will continue despite the weather conditions.

However, Russian troops have exhausted many reserves for their intensified offensive in the summer of 2024 to advance in the Donetsk region. The researchers believe that the current Russian offensive is likely to end in the coming months.

"Poor weather conditions that limit battlefield maneuver will likely contribute to the culmination, but the culmination of the Russian offensive in the summer of 2024 will not necessarily lead to the full completion of Russia's ongoing offensive operations across eastern Ukraine in the fall of 2024 and early winter of 2024-2025. Russian troops have a well-established pattern of fighting outside the culmination points, as well as fighting in adverse weather conditions," the researchers explained. 

Previously, the head of the German Defense Ministry's Special Staff for Assistance to Ukraine has spoken about the feasibility of a Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. 

Meanwhile, some U.S. intelligence analysts and other senior officials have said that Ukrainian forces could hold Kursk for months.