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The purpose of Russia's cross-border attacks in Ukraine explained
Russian invaders are carrying out limited cross-border attacks in the northern Sumy and Kharkiv regions. They are likely attempting to further the Kremlin's campaign to convince the West that the front lines are crumbling, and that Kyiv should comply with all of Moscow's demands.
This information was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Cross-border attacks
Russian invaders entered Hrabowske in Sumy Oblast and Sotnytska Kozachka in Kharkiv Oblast. Currently, Ukrainian defenders are working to stabilize the situation.
According to a source who spoke with the ISW, Hrabowske is a disputed "grey zone" that is not currently controlled by Russian or Ukrainian troops.
According to Russian military bloggers, the invaders advanced to Hrabowske at night and in foggy conditions. They also claim to have entered Riasne, but Ukraine has refuted this information.
What is the invaders' goal?
These two attacks are likely intended to bolster the Kremlin's campaign. The goal is to convince Western countries that the front in Ukraine is crumbling, and that Kyiv must therefore agree to Russian terms.
The Kremlin may present these minor incursions into small border villages as part of a large-scale offensive.
On December 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is prepared to achieve its military objectives by force if it cannot do so diplomatically. This includes establishing and expanding a so-called "buffer zone" in Ukraine. Putin first mentioned the idea of such a zone in June 2023, following Ukrainian attacks in the Belgorod region.
"The Kremlin has since invoked the concept of this buffer zone multiple times to signal broader territorial demands in northern Ukraine, including Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, likely to set conditions to later demand that Ukraine cede some or all of this territory due to Russia’s alleged need for a buffer zone," experts note.
The ISW added that the front lines in Ukraine are not at risk of imminent collapse and that Russia's victory is not inevitable.
Are Russian forces preparing for a large-scale offensive on Ukraine from the north?
According to analysts, however, the occupiers are not preparing for such an offensive. Currently, there are no signs of such preparations. Additionally, ISW doubts Russia's ability to conduct such an operation.
"ISW has not observed evidence that would indicate that Russian forces are preparing for or capable of conducting a significant offensive operation across the international border area into northern Ukraine," the report reads.
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