ISW analysts summarized Russia's achievements and losses in 2024
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According to ISW analysts, 2024 was a year of significant military losses and limited territorial gains for the Russian Federation. Over the course of the year, Russian troops conquered 4168 square kilometers of territory, mostly in sparsely populated rural areas of Ukraine, but at the same time suffered catastrophic losses of more than 420,000 people.
These data were released by researchers at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Scale of losses and intensity of fighting
For every square kilometer of captured territory, there are approximately 102 losses among Russian personnel. The most active period of fighting occurred in the fall, when Russian forces captured 56.5% of the total territory gained over the year, but lost about 125,800 troops.
In December, the advance of Russian troops slowed dramatically, with only 593 square kilometers gained over the month, while losses remained at 1,585 people per day.
Despite such huge losses, Russia was able to recruit 440,000 new recruits, but these replenishments only compensated for the scale of human losses, not creating an advantage on the battlefield.
The main directions of the offensive in 2024
The Russian military command focused its efforts on capturing the territories of Donetsk region, in particular the cities of Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar and Kurakhove. However, the captured settlements were not strategically important for changing the balance of power, and advancing to major defense hubs such as Pokrovsk proved futile.
Russian troops also attempted to create a "buffer zone" in the Kharkiv region to protect Belgorod, but these efforts were largely unsuccessful.
Forecasts for 2025
Despite significant losses, Russia plans to continue its offensive in the Donetsk region, where it still has to overcome about 8,559 square kilometers of fortified Ukrainian positions. At the rate of 2024, this will take at least two years.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces must strengthen their defensive positions, particularly in the areas of Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, to effectively counter Russian assaults.
The Kremlin's Policy in 2025
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland", emphasizing support for the military and veterans. He is expected to expand patriotic programs, provide subsidies to veterans, and continue the campaign to militarize Russian society. However, the cost of such initiatives increases the financial burden on the state, which may make it difficult to maintain long-term social stability.
As a reminder, ISW analysts recently revealed Putin's new strategy for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, according to the latest data, the Russians have already managed to get closer to Kurakhove. ISW assessed the situation on the battlefield.
