Russian advance accelerates — ISW assessed threats to Ukraine

The recent successes of the Russian occupiers near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine has not reached a dead end. Recently, the invaders have been advancing in the Donetsk region much faster than they did throughout 2023.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Occupiers' advance in Donetsk region 

Citing Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashkovets, analysts said that Russian troops have captured Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Illinka and possibly Romanivka (all northeast of Vuhledar along the C051104 road). In addition, geolocation footage released on November 24 shows that Russians have also advanced to the eastern outskirts of Yelyzavetivka.

At the same time, other geolocation footage from November 24 shows a recent advance toward the central part of Trudivske, north of Vuhledar.

Analysts also confirmed advances in the area of Velyka Novosilka. Published imagery shows that Russian forces have recently advanced south of Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka) and to western Novodarivka (southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

"Since September 1, 2024, Russian troops have significantly increased the pace of their offensive on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and Velykonovosilkivske directions. As of today, the occupiers have occupied at least 1,103 square kilometers. While for the whole of 2023, the Russian military gained only 387 square kilometers due to Ukraine's counteroffensive," the statement reads.

Why the occupiers' advance has accelerated

ISW believes that such an advance of Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine since the fall of 2024 is the result of the identification and tactical uexploitation of vulnerabilities in the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

According to analysts, the occupation army has been making gradual tactical advances in southeastern Ukraine since the fall of 2024. The Russians have not been able to resume the operational maneuvers observed during the first months of the full-scale invasion.

It is emphasized that although Russia's tactical offensives are faster than at the beginning of the war, they are still significantly inferior to the pace of Russia's advance in March 2022.

"Russian forces were able to use the capture of Vuhledar to further their offensive operations in the western part of the Donetsk region, despite the ISW's erroneous preliminary assessment that predicted the opposite," the report says.

Recently, the spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn, said that Russia is preparing to conduct assault operations in several directions. For this purpose, the occupiers are preparing special assault groups.

We also wrote that the invaders continue to advance on Kupiansk, Kharkiv region. Currently, 3,800 civilians still remain in the town.