How approval for strikes on Russia could shift the war — forecast

The United States and other countries have authorized Ukraine to launch long-range ballistic missiles at Russian territory. However, this permission applies to Russian and North Korean targets only in the Kursk region and will not significantly change the course of the war.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

How authorizing strikes on Russia will affect the course of the war

U.S. officials said that the U.S. authorized strikes on Russian territory in response to the deployment of North Korean forces on the battlefield in the Kursk region to deter the DPRK from deploying additional forces to Russia. At the same time, U.S. officials also said that the partial lifting of the restrictions was intended to create a "specific and limited" effect on the battlefield and would not significantly change the course of the war.

Analysts note that the partial lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range Western weapons against military targets in the Kursk region will not completely deprive Russian forces of their sanctuary on Russian territory, as hundreds of military targets remain within the ATACMS area in other Russian border regions.

"ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will benefit from any partial sanctuary if Western powers continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself, and that the United States should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets in Russia's operational and deep rear, not just those in the Kursk region," the report says.

As a reminder, on November 17, US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to fire long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia.

The same decision was made by the United Kingdom and France. They also gave the green light to strike enemy territory with SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles.